Corn – Light spill over pressure from beans, funds sellers of 21K, slightly higher support due to exports
↓ Overnight trade is seeing some light spill over pressure from beans
↓ Friday’s COT report showed funds sellers of 21K, continuing a 5 week streak of slow/moderate selling
↑ 3 weeks of improved exports has caused support to be found just above 475 fair value instead of
previous levels that were just under 475, difficult to see but some improvement in support
↔ Recent improvements in exports may not yet be enough to see the USDA raise exports on Friday’s
December crop report but if it continues at recent pace we may see exports raised on the Jan report
Beans – Funds sellers of 14K, solid SA 10 day forecast, China buying seen but a faster pace expected
↓ Forecasters will likely point out parts of SA missed by rains but the 10 day maps still look solid for
both BRA and ARG, parts of BRA/ARG that are missed by rain days 1 – 5 see rains on the 6 – 10 day
↔ So far conditions in SA are still thought to be at least solid as suggested by seeing SA analysts not
lowering production estimates much, especially CONAB which still has BRA at 162.42 MMT
↓ Funds were sellers of 14K, they were nearly flat beans but then bought for 3 weeks on some early
weather issues and hope of China buying but now funds are slowly liquidating those longs again
↔ Fair value for Jan remains at 1190 which looks to be the level Jan is working towards again
Wheat – Last week wheat saw likely the most surprisingly strong exports, has seen support since
↑ Continued light support seen since there were rumors of China buying early last week and then saw
confirmed strong exports of 635K last Thursday, for wheat exports will be the #1 influence
↓ It’s likely KC will continue lagging behind CHI due to GTE ratings expected to continue strong
↔ The pattern of CHI/KC narrowing together has been seen since mid-September and likely to continue
Cattle – BB continues lower, feeder index slightly higher Friday, funds only light sellers of 3K
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice -1.56 select +0.74 packer BE at 178.74, packer cushion $1.76
↓ There are 3 factors influencing cattle recently but BB should remain #1 long term influence and it is
still grinding lower, packer profits remain near $2 so we can expect them to bid as low as possible
↔ Cash feeders were an influence last week, while the feeder index did improve late in the week it was
still lower on the week in total, we will watch for estimates on today’s feeder index when we get them
↓ Funds were sellers of just 3K showing that most of this recent slide is not being caused by fund selling
↓ Futures traders have been cautious lately, we should expect that to start this week as well