Funds Seen Quiet

Corn – Morning maps slightly improved for planting, funds took yesterday off from buying

↑ Overnight added support despite a slight improvement on weather maps, recently we have seen

overnight add support almost every day while the day session has taken a few days off from support

↔Funds took yesterday off, they are clearly the largest support, we will see if they return at 8:30

↓ Morning 1 – 5 day maps are finally clear for SD/MN/IA/WI and half of IL, for these areas that is the

clearest forecast seen since early spring, the 6 – 10 day brings in another large system to the west

↔Recently the pattern has been to see weather fear support for 4 trading days then see a correction

on Tuesday as the planting report isn’t quite as poor as feared, Dec still finding resistance in the 490’s

Beans – Planting fears continue, CONAB raises BRA production, Nov resistance in the 1210 – 1225 area

↑ Overnight added support again on planting concerns and possibly expecting funds to buy after 8:30

↓ Despite concerns about heavy rain, CONAB raised BRA production from 146.5 MMT to 147.7, this

coming from added acreage, during the US growing season SA news only offers influence 1 – 2 days

↓ The area of resistance for Nov beans is in the 1210 – 1225 area, finding more hedge pressure there

↔There is a higher chance that funds are already flat beans as compared to corn, the last COT report

showed funds with a 24% record short in beans compared to 30% record short in corn

↔Bean oil added support Monday on Chinese tariff concerns then took it away yesterday when tariffs

were seen as a non-issue, this has picked up a lot of talk but only signs of 2 days of trading influence

Wheat – Overnight adding support has been common, the largest market overnight trades is wheat

↑ We have seen a regular pattern of overnight adding support and given that most overnight traders

are Euro traders it makes sense they trade wheat more aggressively than corn/beans

↓ Yesterday’s planting and GTE ratings point the opposite direction with spring planting ahead of pace

and the HRW GTE still at a strong 50% level, most of support likely coming from Russian concerns

↔Funds get flat every year in corn/beans but that is not true for wheat where they bias on shorts

Cattle – Incredible bounce in BB, trade factors in cash +$2, futures back to high end of the range

↑ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +5.44 Select +6.64 packer BE at 189.93, packer cushion $5.66

↑ An incredible bounce in BB again yesterday, the big question is if today holds support and doesn’t

give it back as it did last week, packer profits back over $5 and that has futures assuming cash +$2

↔BB remains our #1 guide but recently it has been so volatile it is difficult to know what to expect

next, let’s keep watching it closely and be ready to react quickly to drastic changes

↓ Top end of the range resistance levels are 179.65 for June and 177.925 in August