Corn – Friday’s COT report showed funds as light sellers, most resistance still likely as cash selling
↔Friday’s COT report did show funds selling 4K but that is small on an average week for them, this suggests that most (80%?) of the selling likely came from producer cash selling
↔There is no weekly measurement on cash selling, difficult to know how long to expect it to continue
↔Weather maps have some active rains over SD, NE, IA, MN but are not a total rain out for planting
↔The July corn range continues to hold with most trade being between 440 and 450 for July
↔July will be lead contract in the next day or 2, that should be the chart to watch for technicals now
↔This week is the start of a major increase in planting pace, weather is key going forward
Beans – Funds quiet, 8 AM sales seen 3 of the last 4 days, chart not yet showing a recovery
↔Funds were quiet on Friday’s COT report as sellers of 1K
↑ 8 AM sales have been small but have been seen 3 of the last 4 days, even though each sale is small it is already likely that Thursday’s export report will show a needed improvement
↔The July chart recovered Friday but not enough to break out of the month long downtrend
↔A July move above Thursday’s high of 1192 ¾ would start to look like a recovery on the chart
Wheat – Most HRW areas have rain in the 5 day forecast, GTE expected to remain high today
↓ GTE ratings will be expected to remain at the lofty 56% level, the highest start in years
↔1 – 5 day weather maps offer at least light rains to most HRW areas this week
↔Exports recovered last week to 355K, moderate level but not enough to expect support
Cattle – Cash trades tailed off Friday, most reports $2 to $2.50 lower, BB saw a needed bounce
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +2.20 Select +0.39 packer BE at 189.26, packer cushion $5.14
↓ Friday’s cash trades ended poorly seeing most reports $2 - $2.50 lower, with such widely varying reports last week the average cash trade report today will be important to watch
↔BB saw a bounce Friday bringing packer profits to $5, not yet a supportive level but improvement
↔We know the average cash trade for last week will be lower, that makes 3 weeks in a row and the first time seeing cash down 3 weeks since November, this is starting to weigh on feeder prices
↔The best outlook for support would be if BB started moving higher again, it was higher on Friday but for support in cash we will want to see it lift packer profits to $7 or higher this week