Corn – Funds returned as sellers of 29K on Friday’s COT report, fundamentals suggest corn is oversold
↓ Friday’s COT report showed funds returned as sellers of 29K, now short 181K or 56% of record
↔ Open interest continued to rise right to the end of last week suggesting funds may have continued
to slowly sell through Friday, this changes the pattern of slow short covering seen the previous 2 weeks
↓↔ Last week’s ethanol slowed to slightly disappointing and exports were moderate
↔ Demand (ethanol/exports) have not slowed enough to justify current price levels, fundamentals still
suggest that the fair value for March remains at 480, better support is expected at current levels
↔ Funds being short 181K may suggest they expect the Jan crop report to raise carryout slightly
Beans – Morning maps drier again for ARG, also drier southern BRA days 6 - 10
↑ Morning maps have light rains for ARG days 1 – 5 and mostly dry 6 – 10, for BRA there are still solid
rains days 1 – 5 but southern BRA is dry days 6 – 10
↓ Funds were sellers of 21K on Friday’s COT report, now long just 10K or 4% of record
↔ Last week’s fund selling goes in line with the more solid forecast maps seen last week but now we
will see if new support is added on the slightly drier maps today
↔ We will also see if there are 8 AM sales before the 8:30 opening today
Wheat – Overseas wheat made new yearlong lows to end last week, March CHI still in the range
↔ March CHI continues to trade in the same 610 – 620 trading range as exports remain moderate
↓ Overseas wheat made new yearlong lows on Friday which may start to spill pressure to US wheat
↔ Funds were not as active in wheat on the COT report, buying just 4K, still short 65K or 40% record
Cattle – Friday’s COF bearish on all 3 numbers, first cattle snowstorm of the year continues today
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice +1.80 select -0.12 packer BE at 175.92, packer cushion $5.96
↓ Friday’s COF was more bearish than expected from all 3 numbers with on feed at 102.7 (expected
102.2), placements 98.0 (exp 96.2) and marketings 92.5 (exp 93.3)
↑ Yesterday was the start of the first cattle area snowstorm in SD and NE which continues today
↔ Friday’s COF report will likely have influence today then likely less influence the rest of the week, we
will see if trade focuses more on weather issues for northern cattle areas or the COF report
↑ Cash finished on Friday trading up $1 to $1.50 and BB finished slightly higher as well