Corn – Friday’s COT report showed fund selling continues, now short 280K or 87% of record
↓ A slight bearish bias is expected to continue as long as there are signs of even light fund selling
↔ Funds now short 87% means there is still room for fund selling but not a major amount
↓ The core fundamental right now is that without fresh news a grind lower can be expected to
continue, there is no reason right now to cause funds to start exiting short positions
↑ Support has been seen on the last 2 pullbacks at levels of 436 ¾ and 436 ½, both new 3 year lows
↔ While no news likely means a continued grind lower, price is low enough to also expect an
improvement in demand anywhere near recent lows, this is true for both corn and beans
Beans – Funds sold 16K, now short 108K or 64% of record, 3 year low price level still at 1181 ¼
↓ Funds were more aggressive sellers of beans again on Friday’s COT report, it was another week of
showing signs that funds intend to build an aggressive short position in beans as well as corn
↓ With SA whether not being factored in much at all anymore the story is very similar to corn where no
news suggests a continued grind lower and little reason for funds to cover short positions
↑ Better general support will be expected at levels near or under 3 year lows of 1181 ¼
↔ Even at current price levels BRA beans are still considerably cheaper to China than US beans making
a pickup in exports challenging to expect right now
Wheat – Funds quiet but overseas wheat and improvement to the US dollar causing light pressure
↓ The longer-term downward trend of overseas wheat should continue to spill over light pressure
↓ Recently the US dollar has seen support which tends to weigh on wheat more than other grains
↔ Funds remain mostly quiet in wheat still sitting with a 65K short position which is 40% of record
Cattle – Cash trades reported last week anywhere from $1 to $3.50 higher, today’s reports important
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice -1.86 select +0.22 packer BE at 183.05, packer cushion $8.59
↑ Cash certainly traded higher last week but with cash trades reported $1 to $3.50 higher it is tough to
know what to expect the weekly average will turn out to be
↔ The weekly average will be important because it may draw packer profits back under the $7 level
↔ BB slightly lower again on Friday, still looking neutral but much more of a drop could mean packers
begin to do what they can in order to bid lower in cash
↔ All of the normal Monday reports will be important to watch today as any one of them could be the
main guide for what to expect in cash this week