Funds Remain Heavily Short Heading Into July

Corn – Acreage increase of 1.439 mil suggests a continued grind lower, maps solid, funds sellers

↓ An acerage increase of 1.439 million lowers the final projected price from around 400 – 420 to now somehwere around 370 – 380, a continued grind lower is expected if there is no weather scare

↓ Morning maps have strong rains on the 1 – 5 day and light to moderate rains days 6 – 10, also in the 10 day forecast is no sign of heat other than to occasionally be a couple degrees above average

↓ Funds were sellers of 86K ahead of the report, now short 278K or 81% of record

↔ December corn continues to follow December from 2014 and this is a pattern we look to continue to August, August is when we start to see early data on prevent plant on flooded acreage

Beans – Acreage decline of 410K will slow the grind lower, funds sellers, maps also solid

↑ Friday’s acreage decline of 410K will likely slow the downwards move for beans, a rough price projection might be around 1050 - 1100 with current November just a couple cents over 1100 right now

↓ Funds were sellers of 24K, now short 130K or 75% of record, similar to their 81% of corn shorts

↓ As long as maps show a solid forecast we can still expect at least a slow move lower

↔ Like corn, the next potential for bullish news would be if a weather threat is seen in the key August timeframe for beans, for now we still have 30 days to reach that point and even that is still a “maybe”

Wheat – Acreage decline of 258K, funds sellers, exports picking up, farvest pressure may slow soon

↔ Acreage decline of 258K will most likely be seen as mostly neutral due to strong yields expected

↓ Funds sellers of 18K, now short 70K or 43% of record

↑ Exports have improved the last 2 weeks, possibly a sign of true demand improvement on lower price

Cattle – Tough to estimate last week’s ave cash and packer profits, have to wait for Monday reports

↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice +2.99 Select +1.80 packer BE at 200.29, packer cushion $9.74

↔ Given the very low amount of reported cash trades to major packers it is tough to estimate last week’s average cash trade, we will just have to wait for today’s report

↔ The same goes for packer profits, we need to see what last week’s cash trade was before we know the updated packer profit level, instead of the $9.74 listed above it is likely to be $6 or $7

↔ BB bounced on Friday but not quite enough yet to start this week assuming higher cash again

↓ We have seen futures a bit cautious, they likely know that whenever BB falls, cash/futures will too