Corn – Ethanol and exports solid this week, no signs of fund short covering in over 2 weeks
↔ Yesterday’s setback appeared to be a technical correction which was helped by wheat trading lower
↔ There have been no signs from the funds, either buying or selling, in 2 weeks
↑ Both ethanol and exports were solid reports this week, weekly fundamentals remain strong
↑ It is still early to expect pre buying of the acreage report but with corn acreage expected lower we
should see at least light general support ahead of the report on the 28th
Beans – Yesterday’s turnaround and overnight trading lower still looks like a technical correction
↔ Even after yesterday’s turnaround from a higher start and last night’s setback, the current price level
only appears to be a technical correction after a recent run up of 77 ¼ cents
↔ Exports were moderate at 470K, not great but better than the recent streak of 400K or lower
↓ An increase in open interest on yesterday's turnaround suggested new producer hedge pressure
↔ NOPA crush is out at 11 AM today and is expected at 178.058 mil bu
Wheat – Overseas wheat up slightly last night so CHI wheat up slightly, exports fall back to being poor
↑ Most of trade continues to follow overseas moves and overseas wheat was slightly higher last night
↓ Exports fell back to a poor number again yesterday at 165K
↔ Immediately following the acreage report on the 28th we will expect much more influence to be on
US weather and expectations of what the first GTE rating will be this year
Cattle – April filled the chart gap then reversed, cash trades strong right after the futures close
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.96 Select +0.65 packer BE at 194.46, packer cushion $9.79
↔ After April filled the chart gap yesterday speculators quickly changed from being buyers to being
sellers, most of the technical move seen yesterday completed both upside and downside objectives
↑ Cash trades reported after the futures close yesterday ranged from 185/186 to major packers in NE
and some reports up to 189 to regional packers (last week average was 184.70 for NE)
↑ BB continues its grind higher, while the recent run higher in futures may have been too much too
quick, if BB continues to grind higher then we can expect cash levels to continue higher
↔ Choice + Select is at 612 which surpasses a resistance level some were noticing, last year’s high for
BB was at 654 which happened in the middle of June
↓ Dressed weights were +5 lbs yesterday, that puts a significant dent into a cash/futures rally