Corn – Yesterday was another day with funds quiet, trade expecting a slightly bullish report Friday
↑ Trade is expecting a small decline in carryout from 2.172 last month to 2.159 expected Friday
↓ May continues to stall out at first technical resistance which is a two-month downtrend line crossing at 430 ¾ today, both Monday’s and yesterday's trade hit that trend line and stopped the bounce
↔ Fund short covering appears to have slowed since Wednesday of last week
↔ With fund activity looking to have slowed so has smaller speculator support, once funds show signs of short covering again it is likely we will also find small spec buying again as well
↑ Exports and ethanol still continues strong which puts quick support on days of a pullback
Beans – Carryout 0.319 last month expected at 0.315 Friday, CONAB adjusting estimates soon
↔ Friday’s March crop report expected to raise carryout slightly, USDA’s previous lowering of exports looks to have been the right move as exports have slowed drastically as their estimate would suggest
↔ There is talk that the USDA will change their BRA crop estimates on Friday, a much more important
update will be when CONAB adjusts their estimate either later this week or early next week
↔ Currently CONAB is at 149.4 MMT while private estimates are lower than that
↓ Exports will be expected poor again tomorrow keeping moderate pressure especially on bounces
Wheat – Still no change overseas with Russian and other wheat markets making new lows again
↓ US wheat held off following overseas wheat to new 3 year lows over the last few days but with overseas still falling, US wheat markets made new 3 year lows yesterday/overnight
↔ Expectations for Friday's crop report is for no carry out change at all staying at 0.657
↔ Exports continue at a moderate pace which is not offering support or resistance to price right now
Cattle – First cash bids start slightly low but no takers so far, BB lower for the first time in 11 days
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.51 Select -0.30 packer BE at 190.39, packer cushion $7.62
↔ First cash bids started $0.50 lower which appears to be a low start to see if packers can find any sellers willing to let cattle go at a lower level but so far there are no takers through this morning
↔ BB was lower yesterday breaking a streak of 11 higher days in a row but with packer profits still above $7 it is not a concerning move in boxed beef yet
↔ April remains range bound between 184.475 and 189.20, soon June will become the lead speculated contract and the range for that month has been 179.825 to 184.825