Corn – A 2.162 carryout suggests fair value near current levels but light general pressure still expected
↓ While a 2.162 carryout suggests fair value near current levels, the increased carryout was a surprise
and with no anticipated bullish USDA reports ahead general pressure could continue
↓ Funds continued selling on Friday’s COT report, another 33K, now short 231K or 72% of record
↔ With a short position 72% of record it’s likely funds are thinking longer term bearish for corn
↔ 1.4% increase in yields Friday, 2.4 bu/acre, is tied for the largest yield increase of the past 20 years
↓ USDA did not make changes to exports despite the recent 2 months seeing strong exports, this is a
sign that the USDA expects exports to fall back to being poor for longer than a month, possibly 2
Beans – A 0.280 carryout suggests fair value at current levels, both ARG/BRA maps drier this morning
↓ A 0.280 carryout was a surprise bearish report, like corn could continue light pressure going forward
↑ Morning 10 day SA maps drier for both BRA/ARG helping to add light support back in for beans
↔ For many SA areas this is the key production determining timeframe as it comes to whether, this
means changes in weather maps can still have a moderate or large effect on day-to-day bean price
↓ Funds sold 20K, now short 31K, for beans funds are only getting started with shorts at 19% record
↓ USDA left been exports unchanged, giving the impression they expect poor sales going forward
Wheat – The one market see positive news on Friday with carryout at 0.647
↑ The only market to see a bullish carryout number from Friday at 0.647, 0.658 was expected
↔ While light support would be expected in may come as a challenge of corn continues lower
↔ Funds were mostly quiet on the COT report, buyers of 2K, currently short 58K or 36% record
Cattle – BB continues higher, USDA’s recent support could help to lower feed costs going forward
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +2.16 select +0.71 packer BE at 179.06, packer cushion $7.30
↑ Updated BB did come out yesterday and continued higher taking packer profits above $7
↑ BB is back to levels not seen since early December, now looking generally supportive
↓ Last week’s average cash trade was -0.79 at 171.76, steady to slightly higher was likely expected
↔ Last year seeing packer profits over $7 is generally the level where we saw more aggressive packer
bidding in cash, we will see if that trend continues this year as well
↑ USDA’s grain report from Friday should continue general pressure on corn keeping feed costs in
check, this may also help support cash feeder prices going forward