Corn – Funds cover 116K shorts, morning maps don’t have quite as much rain as Friday’s maps
↓ Morning maps are not dry but don’t suggest as extreme rainfall totals as Friday’s maps did
↔Funds covered a very large 116K shorts as of last Tuesday, as of then still short 103K or 30% record
↔Those 103K shorts left in corn were as of last Tuesday and it is safe to assume that funds continued
short covering through all of last week and were very active Friday, they may be close to flat now
↔Looking back to 2007 we can say that funds have always gotten flat at some point every year but
they don’t always flip and build a significant position in the other direction
↓ Major resistance is expected again in December anywhere in the 490s
Beans – Funds cover 108K shorts, not as much planting concern with beans, quite a bearish report
↓ As with corn the morning maps do not suggest as much rain as Friday’s maps did, by the numbers the
planting pace for beans is ahead of corn so there is a bit less concern about planting for beans
↔Funds covered a large 108K shorts, as of Tuesday were short 41K or 24% of record
↔It is likely funds continued short covering after Tuesday, in beans it is possible they are flat by now
↓ Friday’s posted a carryout of 445, suggesting a final Nov price near $10, that should not be ignored
↔Trend line yields this year for corn are 181 and for beans 52
Wheat – There are still concerns over Russian weather, US HRW areas have the least rain
↑ There is still concern over Russian weather although Russian officials are making calming statements
↑ Of the areas that dry out most in the 10 day forecast, HRW areas are the driest on the maps
↔Funds covered 5500 wheat, still short 42K or 26% of record, wheat is the one grain market that
funds do NOT always get flat in a given year, they have remained short wheat over 1 year
Cattle – Futures staying VERY close to cash, BB still moving lower, middle of the Aug range is 173.65
↓ Friday’s PM BB was choice -0.82 Select -1.59 packer BE at 183.75, packer cushion -$0.51
↓ BB continues to move lower to now at a level packer profits are a gross loss, very difficult to expect a
higher cash trade this week unless some other factor comes in very supportive
↔Futures are not straying far from cash, most of last week not more than $1 away from expectations
↔Futures are still clearly sideways, August still above middle of the recent range, middle being 173.65
↔Funds buyers of 3K, now long 37K, funds have not been a major factor in cattle since December