Corn – Funds continue active sellers, selling 30K, now short 81% record, exports improved last week
↓ Friday’s COT report showed funds remain active sellers, OI suggests that continued through Friday
↔ There is talk that with funds as short as they are there is potential for a sizable recovery when they
exit shorts however funds continue his active sellers, no sign of short covering anytime soon
↑ Exports improved on last week’s report at 1271K, a better report, more is needed
↔ Ethanol continued strong last week, this combined with better exports shows an overall
improvement in demand last week but to spark fund short covering it is likely that more is needed
Beans – Funds larger sellers of beans, BRA rains moderate, ARG mostly dry in the 10 day outlook
↓ Overnight slightly lower likely anticipating that active fund is selling resumes like we saw last week
where on the COT report they were sellers of 46K, OI suggests that selling continued through Friday
↓ Funds were by far the most aggressive sellers of beans as compared to other grain markets and with
their short position at 45% of record it shows there is still more room for than the sell if they choose to
↑ BRA maps continue to suggest moderate rains but slightly drier than last week, ARG remains dry
↔ Exports recovered to a moderate level last week of 783K, better but not what most would call strong
Wheat – Fund sellers of wheat like corn/beans, exports see a drastic improvement last week
↓ Funds sold 11K on Friday’s COT report, now short 69K or 42% of record
↓ OI showed funds sold through Thursday but may have taken Friday off, this is the only market that
hinted through open interest that funds may have slowed on Friday
↑ Last week’s exports improved drastically to 708K, solid news, more is needed before seeing support
Cattle – BB cooled slightly last week but still strong, average cash trade likely $1 higher, funds quiet
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice -0.79 select -0.71 packer BE at 183.69, packer cushion $11.93
↑ BB cooled off slightly on Thursday/Friday but still strong enough to be supportive
↔ Cattle is one of the few markets where funds were quiet last week sellers of just 1K
↔ Last week’s average cash trade likely $1 higher, close to the $1.50 higher futures pre priced in
↔ BB still has packer profit levels near $12, solid enough to suggest at least a steady cash trade this
week as long as the showlist is not +15K or more
↓ A likely reason for the conservative futures and cash trade is that for the month of January both
numbers of head and weights were both up just over 2%