Corn – Friday’s COT report showed funds selling 16K, 10 day maps have consistent moderate rain
↓ Friday’s COT report showed that funds did add to shorts through last Tuesday, back to 82% of record shorts, cash selling started the setback but last week funds also helped to take out 2 month lows
↔Forecast maps are not a total wash out but do suggest regular moderate rains with solid coverage
↔Friday eased up on the cash and fund selling pressure, we will have to wait until 8:30 to see if that pressure remains sidelined or if funds go back to adding to shorts
↔July is back within the old range between 440 and 450, if funds are quiet we may expect that to be the range that July continues to trade until larger scale (likely weather) news is seen
Beans – Funds back to 98% of record shorts selling 29K, July chart still in a clear downtrend
↓ Funds were even more aggressive sellers of beans last week selling 29K and back to near record short
↔Like corn, the only way to know if funds will return to selling this week is to wait until 8:30 and see if their selling resumes shortly after the start of the day session
↔Weather maps should be back to playing a sizable roll in market direction and while the 10 day outlook doesn’t stop all areas for planting it will in the least keep the best case pace at “moderate”
↔If fund selling eases the new July trading range might remain near current levels for now
Wheat – Funds sellers of 10K, short 59% record, HRW areas see light to moderate rains in the 10 day
↓ Funds sold all Ag markets on the COT report, including 10K wheat
↑ Overnight trade may be looking for a 1% drop in GTE to 54%, a setback but still a strong rating
↔HRW rains are light days 1 – 5 and moderate 6 – 10, no weather issues seen in the forecast yet
Cattle – Cash traded mostly $1 higher as expected, BB higher Friday but tough the last 10 days
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice -0.13 Select +1.56 packer BE at 186.21, packer cushion $4.30
↔Cash traded mostly $1 higher last week which was expected due to the lower trending BB
↔Friday added support in for BB but it will take more than 1 higher day to suggest a change in the
lower trend, BB had a tough week last week and packer profits are still near $4
↓ When funds sold all Ag markets the cattle market was included at -5K, now at 21% of record longs
↑↓ Friday’s COF report had a lower Placements than expected but also had a lower marketings than
expected as well, suggests an enough tougher short term outlook than expected with a better long term outlook than first expected