Corn – Overnight traders bargain buying, funds sold 18K, new 3 year lows to end last week
↑ Overnight traders saw some bargain buying after Friday left corn at new 3 year lows
↔ Overnight may be expecting some 8 AM sales which have happened occasionally at new lows
↓ Funds even more aggressive sellers on the COT report, selling 18K, now short 298K or 92% record
↓ The USDA Outlook Board numbers are Thursday, focus is likely to be mostly on acreage but they will
offer their first thought (not official estimate) on 2024 carryout numbers, most expect a high number
Beans – Overnight bargain buying, Chinese New Year is this week likely slowing total trade activity
↑ Overnight trade bargain buying in beans as well, possibly expecting an 8 AM sale
↔ This week is the Chinese New Year which may slow over all trade and limit 8 AM announcements
↔ China does still make purchases during their holiday but rare to see sudden large scale buying
↓ The Outlook Board numbers on bean acreage may move higher, some expect a 2024 new crop
number from this outlook to be over 0.400
↓ Funds were sellers of 22K, now short 130K or 77% of record
↔ Some are looking for fund short covering but so far they are still selling at full pace
Wheat – Slightly lower overseas wheat trade meant no bargain buying found for this market
↓ Overnight overseas traders did not attempt a bargain buy in wheat likely due to overseas wheat
markets under light pressure which continues the slow grind seen overseas for 6 months
↓ Overseas wheat trade continues to have more effect on KC wheat than CHI wheat
↔ While KC/MN wheat move back near 3 year lows, CHI wheat is mostly sideways for the last 2 weeks
Cattle – Quite a lot of trade after the futures close Friday, most reported at 181 in NE, $3 higher
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice -0.97 select +0.96 packer BE at 183.87, packer cushion $5.65
↑ Trade reported after the close on Friday was mostly $3 higher, this could start futures lightly
supported but keep in mind futures finished Friday already priced $6 over previous week cash
↔ BB remains neutral keeping packer profits at a moderate level around $5 which is not poor but not
the level where we start to consider it strong (above $7)
↑ The COT report showed funds as buyers of 9K, now long 36K or 23% of record
↔ Funds have plenty of room to buy, the COT report which looks through Tuesday’s close might have
shown smaller buying than expected at +9K, some may have thought 12K to 15K