Corn – Strong signs of fund short covering yesterday, lost spillover support from beans last night
↑ Open interest was down a large 39K yesterday, suggesting there was active fund short covering
↔As always we will have to wait until 8:30 to see if funds continue that short covering today
↓ Beans eased back last night taking back some of the spill over support seen recently
↓ We must factor in active cash selling every day this week yet, providing light/moderate resistance
↔A bare minimum bounce to start suggesting a recovery right now would be at 404
Beans – Heat breaks and beans ease overnight, no signs of fund short covering in beans
↓ As the heat broke for most Midwest areas yesterday and some moderate rains moved through easing weather concerns for beans last night which caused a slight setback
↔Unlike corn/wheat, there still were no clear signs funds short covered in beans yesterday
↔The bare minimum bounce to look like a recovery in Nov would be a downtrend line at 1000 ½
↑ We may find a few buyers late today getting in ahead of tomorrow’s export sales report, that report has improved 6 weeks in a row with last week posting a very solid number of 1637K
Wheat – Open interest down 11K yesterday suggests funds short covered both Monday/Tuesday
↑ Open interest was down 11K yesterday suggesting fund short covering, it was also down 10K on Monday putting 2 days together where a case can be made for fund short covering
↑ Overseas was higher last night (following the US wheat bounce yesterday?), trade will continue following overseas while there is no other news but fund trading easily overshadows overseas moves
↑ Exports are slowly recovering, last Thursday reaching a solid level of 493K
Cattle – 95% of panic trade now covered, waiting to see first cash bids today, PM BB turnaround
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -3.93 select +0.06 packer BE at 195.61, packer cushion $11.06
↔After yesterday’s bounce we can say the recent panic selling is 95% covered, Oct is -$1.92 compared to last week’s cash, any where from $1 to $3 above or below last week’s cash is “normal”
↔Yesterday’s AM BB showed a surge that took choice + select to 620 which is right at 40 day highs but there was a big turnaround on the PM BB taking choice + select to 612 which is not far from 40 day lows
↔Even after the BB turnaround packer profits are $11, strong enough to still expect higher cash bids
↔With futures back to normal levels we are back to expecting futures focus on cash trades this week