Corn – Fund short covering slows, a clear 10 day forecast for some to start harvest, focus back on yield
↑ Fund short covering continues but slowed, Friday’s COT report showed funds +16K, still short 242K
↓ We should see more yield survey and tour results this week putting trade’s focus back on yield
↔Exports have improved in a big way which was very much needed, they are not yet strong enough to suggest a price turnaround, exports are on expected target but not exceeding USDA estimates
↓ Until more is known about the crop from combine reports the $4.00 area will still be expected as general resistance, more so during the day session than overnight
Beans – Exports slightly ahead of pace, funds cover 6K shorts, trade now expecting 8 AM sales daily
↑ Overnight should see generally better support as those traders are now anticipating a new 8 AM sale almost daily and strong total exports on each Thursday’s report
↔Now that we have seen Nov under $10 causing an uptick in exports the new question is “how much of a bounce will slow exports back down?”, that is something we will have to wait to see
↑↓ We may see overnight trade focus more on exports and the day session keep most attention on the upcoming harvest about to start and yield estimates/reports
↔The 10 day forecast is almost completely clear for harvest areas, combine reports should come soon
Wheat – Overseas lower but not to new lows, funds small sellers of 3K, exports improving
↓ Overseas lower last night but this time not making new lows, recent Russian headlines have talked slightly lower yields again which has stabilized overseas trade for now
↔Exports have improved but like corn/beans, more is needed before expecting a price recovery
Cattle – BB calm again Friday, packer profits over $7 but not by much, mostly a sideways feel
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +0.68 select -0.37 packer BE at 192.14, packer cushion $8.82
↔BB took a hit lower early last week then stabilized again, it starts the week with packer profits just over $7 which is lightly supportive but not strong enough to start the week assuming higher cash
↔Futures are still about $3 under the previous week’s cash trade, traders remain slightly defensive showing signs they are concerned BB may start falling again
↔With all recent panic trade almost fully priced out we now go back to watching BB as our #1 guide for longer term moves, trade does appear more cautious now, more quick to react to lower BB days