Corn – Fund short covering 3 days in a row, overnight expecting a 4th, ethanol expected moderate
↑ After seeing active fund short covering 3 days in a row, overnight is pre buying looking for them to come back in again today, it is not likely they are flat as of this morning but likely fairly close now
↔Ethanol slipped last week to 994K but trade will still anticipate a moderate report today of 1000K+
↑ Some may link the crude rally to corn which could draw in some light speculative buying but it should be mentioned the correlation of crude and corn has not been strong since early 2023
Beans – Overnight may be focused on SA weather, our day session still seeing regular fund buying
↓ Overnight may be focused on SA weather which sees a solid improvement in rains on the morning 6 – 10 day map with some solid 1” to 4” totals in areas of most concern
↑ The day session has seen a regular streak of fund buying which will be expected again today
↔Continued 8 AM sales are expected just as we have recently seen but the big question to be answered tomorrow is: Will this take the weekly total exports back above a moderate level?
↔The recent Quarterly Stocks report has been corn back as the main focus and turned beans into a market that is a follower, some may be expecting a small yield increase from the USDA on the October 11th report which is not expected in corn
Wheat – Dryness is now a concern in both HRW areas as well as Russia, exports need a rebound
↑ Dryness concerns continue as HRW areas remain dry in the 10 day outlook
↑ Dryness is also starting up in Russia and are expected to be the reason planting is off to a slow start
↓ Tomorrow’s weekly exports will likely be expected poor at 400K or less, last week was 169K
Cattle – BB on a 2 day bounce, trade renews optimism looking for at least a 0.50 higher cash trade
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +2.09 select +0.77 packer BE at 184.98, packer cushion $0.78
↑ Futures trade has turned highly optimistic in cash now looking for a cash trade this week of at least
0.50 higher and at one point yesterday had pre priced in a cash expectation of $1.50 higher
↔Obviously futures are not making this move on a 2 day bounce in BB, they are anticipating this could
be the start of a major bounce like we saw in early May where BB went from 8 month lows to new highs
on the year in just 2 months
↔Let’s see what we get for starting bids, anything higher than steady would be amazing right now