Corn – Planting 83% (82% ave), signs funds may be adding to shorts, moderate rains next 10 days
↓ Corn planting came in ahead of average pace for the first time in 4 weeks at 83%
↓ A few selling volume spikes along with open interest +14K yesterday implies funds may be continuing to add back to shorts after selling 50K corn last week
↔ The 10 day forecast can be called “OK”, regular moderate rains and mostly normal temperatures until day 9, days 9 – 14 show the first round of above average temperatures for growing areas
↔ Next week’s crop progress report will show the first corn GTE rating of the year
↔ The range in July has been 451 to 475 ½, for Dec 476 ¼ to 496 ¾, watch for potential breakouts
Beans – Planting 68% (63% ave), never did see a confirmation of Chinese buying rumored last week
↓ Planting remains ahead of average pace as it has been all spring for beans at 68%
↓ July beans took a hit yesterday as trade looks to be giving up on the Chinese buying rumors from last
week, we needed to see a confirmation of these sales but that has not been seen on 8 AM reports
↔ The forecast is not completely clear for planting but clear enough to expect next Monday’s planting
pace will remain above the 5 year average
↔ The range in July has been 1203 ½ to 1258 ¼, for Nov 1193 ¾ to 1230 ½
Wheat – Russia is still the focus of trade but soon a strong US harvest will turn to being the focus
↔ Fund short covering and concerns over Russian wheat damage has caused a $1.70 rally in July CHI
↔ At this point funds are likely close to flat and soon attention will turn away from Russian concerns once the US harvest starts up where yields are expected strong likely sparking a setback in price
↔ Until US harvest begins, trade is likely to remain choppy and tough to predict short term
Cattle – CH + SEL BB is back to 616 matching last week’s highs, showlist +11K, packer profits solid
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice +0.61 Select +1.64 packer BE at 195.44, packer cushion $7.62
↔ Choice + Select BB is back to 616, right at 617 resistance but so far still has not taken that out
↑ Packer profits above $7 still implies packers are likely willing to pay higher cash this week
↓ A +11K showlist suggests that if packers do pay higher cash, it might be limited, $1 to $1.50 higher
↔ Just like BB, futures moved back to last week’s highs but so far have not taken those highs out
↔ It sounds repetitive but BB remains our #1 guide and will likely continue to do so most of the year