Corn – Focus likely to slowly shift towards the January crop report, exports still solid
↑ Friday’s exports continued solid 1253K, some in trade may have expected it to slow under 1000K
↔ We should slowly start to see trade turn focused towards the January crop report, as a reminder all
numbers could possibly change on this report although early expectations are for no major surprises
↑ Overnight macro trade is reversing some of the trade going into the end of last year, that means
buying crude and nat gas, selling stocks/bonds, if this is the trend for grains it could mean buying corn
↔ Funds were quiet at the end of last year buying 3K corn, they are still short 178K or 55% record
Beans – Maps drier days 1 – 5 BRA/ARG, then return active rains days 6 – 10, focus shift to Jan report
↑↓ Morning maps are drier days 1 - 5 for BRA/ARG, then return to seeing moderate rains days 6 – 10
↔ Weather maps are likely to be the first early influence this week but then attention should slowly
turn more towards the January crop report by mid-to-late week
↓ Exports eased last week to 984K, if no 8 AM sales are seen trade may assume exports are slowing
↓ Funds sellers of 5K, now essentially flat being long just 5K, they have not been short beans all year
↔ Funds are flat right at a time that March is very close to fair value of 1300, some recent support has
been removed but there is no sign yet that beans are about to fall significantly under fair value
Wheat – Funds bought 5K slowly covering a 60K short position, exports last week moderate
↑ Funds finished last year lightly short covering, we will see if that trend continues to start this year
↔ Exports finished last year moderate, exports are fairly close to expected pace
↔ Of the grain markets wheat may be the one market expecting the least changes on the January crop
report which means this market may see the least amount of pre-trading going into next week
Cattle – Cash traded higher last week but BB moved lower, tough to assume higher cash this week
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice -1.57 select +1.09 packer BE at 174.64, packer cushion $3.92
↑ Today’s average cash trade report is likely to show $1 to $2 higher from strong trade last week
↓ Last week’s BB report steadily moved lower which makes it tough to expect a higher cash trade this
week, if cash trade was $2 higher last week that puts gross packer profits near $2 to start this week
↔ Feb futures are pricing in a cash level about $3 lower, for now that is hard to argue with after seeing
BB move lower most of last week
↓ Due to slowed BB and that report still being the best overall guide for the last 3 months we would
have to start this week with the assumption of a lower cash trade unless the showlist is sizably lower