Corn – Exports expected moderate 900K – 1000K, light fund short covering yesterday
↔Exports will be expected moderate again at levels around 900K – 1000K
↑ Signs of light fund short covering yesterday, they seem to be here every so often but not daily
↓ Cash selling has been very predictable adding in active resistance right at 400 for December
↔Ethanol improved to a slightly strong level of 1098K yesterday, more of that is needed to make up for running behind USDA estimates for the year or a jump up to 1150K – 1200K is needed
Beans – Exports expected strong, weather maps mostly unchanged except just slightly cooler
↑ Exports are expected strong again today, possibly close to as high as last week’s 1567K
↑ There is talk that China will continue the slow 8 AM purchases, all recent 8 AM sales have been new crop which has a slower effect on the market compared to old crop buying
↓ The PF Tour has found some solid corn yield tests and bean pod counts through IA/IL/IN, this supports the idea of USDA’s current yield leaving the question: Does yield need to be increased again?
↔Yesterday was one of the lowest volume days of the year for beans giving the impression many traders are in a “wait and see” attitude as they each try to estimate upcoming yields
Wheat – Canadian rail workers go on strike today, Dec CHI still not at contract lows but close
↑ Canadian rail workers are expected to go on strike today and as of this morning there is no talk yet of intervention, this is a larger story for oats but can add light support to wheat as well
↔Exports are expected moderate to slightly poor today around 350K
↔Contract lows in Dec CHI have not been taken out yet but they are close at 539 ½
Cattle – Full panic trade continues with cattle reacting more to a jobs report than the DOW or crude
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.13 select +0.04 packer BE at 195.67, packer cushion $9.83
↓ Yesterday saw a jobs revision that was the largest downside revision in 15 years, cattle instantly moved lower on that news and for a time it moved more aggressively than either the DOW or crude
↓ After futures moved lower there were NE cash trades another $1 lower at 185, likely caused by cash panic selling following yesterday’s futures panic selling
↔It is true that if the economy slows, so should beef prices but BB still shows the current situation as neutral, all selling right now is on fear of what could happen
↔That level of fear is measured by seeing October $5 lower than this week’s $4 lower cash trade