Fifth best soybean export sale in history. US price advantage widens.

A second week of strong soybean export sales was reported. This week's 1,574,721 tonne sale was the fifth best in history for this specific week. For a second week the total sale was much larger than what you would expect given low overnight sales, in this case only 253,000. The trade estimate was 600,000 - 1,300,000.

The US currently has the best price advantage over Brazil in over a year. The price shift is very clear. Some of this is due the change in US dollar/Brazilian real pricing. If US interest rates continue to fall this could continue.

USDA's current goal for the year is 1.850 billion bushels. That would be -5% vs. the prior five year average. Current crop sales have improved to -23% vs. the five year average. The remainder of the year needs to run +8% vs. the five year average. This week was a surprising win at +28% vs. average.

Sales are still clearly behind USDA's goal. However, given this new US pricing advantage the market is correct is now assuming we will meet or exceed USDA's view.

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