Corn – Signs funds are slowly adding to shorts, weather maps suggest a solid start for growing season
↓ The fund selling pattern continues, open interest was +15K yesterday and there were volume spikes
↓ Weather maps have solid rains days 1 – 5 then lighter rains 6 – 10, there is heat in the forecast starting days 6 or 7 but it could take some time before trade starts thinking “hot and dry”
↓ ARG corn was approved for purchase by China, that opens another seller of corn to China now
↑ July is approaching first chart support at 451, larger scale support would be expected around 440
↓ Corn has been seeing spill over support from wheat but wheat looks to be starting a setback now
Beans – Day 1 – 5 rains still leave some doubt about planting, China buying is no longer talked about
↑ Rains on the 1 – 5 day maps still leave some concern about planting, there is a clearing days 6 – 10
↓ July beans have recently taken a hit due to last week’s China buying rumors never having been confirmed on the 8 AM sales report, now China is not even being talked about this week
↔ BRA bean price recently stepped back which may be one reason China buying talk has now slowed
↑ First chart support in July is around 1203 ½, follow up larger support is not seen until the 1160 area
↔ Until a weather issue arises it will need to be the demand side to spark any rounds of support
Wheat – Trade finally looks to be turning attention away from Russia, some headlines still possible
↓ Both overnight and day session traders look to be turning attention away from Russia
↔ We should expect there will be more occasional RU headlines to spark short term bounces
↓ A setback could be sizeable once trade turns attention back to US conditions, let’s not forget that estimates call for KS to have the strongest wheat yield in 3 years
Cattle – FCE traded 1 lot of cattle in TX at 188, steady with last week, $2 lower than trade expected
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.50 Select -0.95 packer BE at 195.61, packer cushion $7.79
↔ The FCE traded a pen of cattle in TX at 188, while that is steady with last week most traders were likely expecting at least $1 higher if not $2 higher cash trades this week
↔ SH + SEL beef now at 616.10, very close but still not taking out resistance at 617.46
↔ We only have a single cash trade to go on so far so we will look for more bids today, we would not choose to use the FCE as the best guide for what to expect in cash trades, there is a reason almost no group has followed the FCE in over a year, if they trade more reliably then we will watch it again