Corn – A mostly clear forecast continues for active harvest, funds quiet for a 3rd week in a row
↓ We haven’t seen much harvest pressure yet but a clear forecast could pick that up slightly this week
↔Funds buyers of 4K making this the 3rd “quiet” COT report in a row for corn, we do think they were active buyers for 1 day on Thursday but that won’t be seen until this Friday’s COT report
↔Funds are short 131K, 37% of record, close enough to flat that slowing on short covering is possible
↔Last week’s exports were poor but a couple 8 AM sales recently has trade looking for a recovery
↔Last week made new highs on the trading range which is now 401 ¼ to 419 ¾
Beans – Hurricane moves out, funds active at short covering 47K, forecast clear for most areas
↓ With the hurricane moving out some buying attention focused on that last week may slow today
↔Funds were active at short covering buying 47K, now short 75K or 40% of record
↔Funds now hold a similar position in all grains, corn 37% of record short, beans 40%, wheat 16%
↑ While corn/wheat exports turned poor recently, beans have held strong to at least moderate levels
↔Palm oil is off slightly last night but still on an aggressive enough run to keep a watch on that market
Wheat – US dollar very close to recent lows, exports need help, HRW planting forecast remains clear
↑ The US dollar is near recent lows which still has a larger influence on wheat compared to corn/beans
↔The lower dollar may help exports which recently have shown could very much use that help
↔All HRW areas remain dry in the 10 day outlook to keep HRW planting moving
Cattle – Friday was quiet in cash and also in BB which sits right at 8 moth lows
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice +0.32 select -0.29 packer BE at 183.76, packer cushion $0.64
↔ BB held the 8 month low level on Friday with a calm report, 8 month lows in CH + SEL is 578.74 and the current level is at 578.77
↓ Packers will be starting this week with gross profits at $0.64 (and that’s before factoring in yesterday’s higher cash trade), if packers pay even steady cash this week it would be at a significant net loss for them
↔ Trade likely to start calm today, waiting for the next larger scale news for influence