Corn – Fund buying yesterday followed by easing back from poor exports, will funds be here today?
↓ The USDA estimates this year’s exports will be +5% over last year, currently corn exports are at -10% and yesterday’s report by itself was -34%
↔Yesterday started the day with fund buying, we will see if that support is seen again after 8:30
↔Those not impacted by the hurricane have a 10 day window for harvest, in the 1 – 5 day about 75% of harvesting areas are clear, in the 6 – 10 day 100% of harvesting areas are clear
↔If funds are not here this morning, it would seem likely that Dec gravitates back to 410
Beans – Hurricane rains adding a bit of support overnight, exports moderate yesterday, poor overall
↑ Delta rains being seen today from the hurricane with active totals over some bean acreage, following this storm the Delta has a forecast that allows for a chance of drying days 3 – 10
↔The USDA estimates this year’s exports at -5% compared to last year, currently bean exports are - 23% on the year but yesterday’s export report did help being +28% over last year
↔Bean exports were very poor most of 2024 and while still poor we have seen recent improvements
↔Current price has moved well over the 1010 – 1020 fair value level, tough to know if trade is assuming exports will keep improving dramatically or if trade expects USDA to lower yields
↔Most of yesterday’s support was fund short covering, we will see if they return today
Wheat – Exports solid as long as they don’t fall like seen yesterday, active HRW planting expected
↔The USDA estimates this year’s exports at -2% compared to last year, currently wheat exports are EVEN with last year but yesterday’s number was -46%
↔The 10 day forecast is almost entirely clear for HRW planting areas
Cattle – A bulk of yesterday’s NE cash trade yesterday was 186.50, last week average was 184.22
↓ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.80 select -0.91 packer BE at 183.75, packer cushion $0.63
↑ Cash trades yesterday were surprisingly strong with most trades in NE at $2 higher for the week
↓ BB is even worse, exactly matching the 8 month lows and taking packer gross profits under $1
↑↓ The story continues that current cash trades look amazing and give a sense of an improving cash market while BB suggests this is all about to turn the other direction and move lower
↔Packers stopped paying higher cash last fall and again early this year when profits fell under $1 and that is the situation packers are in right now