Corn – More pressure seen but also better support as March moves near contract low 470 ½
↓ There was talk yesterday that 2 rail lines into Mexico were closed which caused concern about the
amount of corn the US would be able to ship to the #1 corn buyer, Mexico
↑ Corn is finding better support the closer March moves towards contract lows of 470 ½
↔ A grind lower can give the impression that this market is set for a new drift lower but despite rail
concerns there is currently no reason to change the fair value level of 480, exports have not yet slowed
↔ Ethanol will be expected moderate again today near last week’s level of 1074K
Beans – SA weather maps still look very solid, small 8 AM sales seen again yesterday
↓ Morning weather maps still showing solid rains for BRA days 1 – 5 and for ARG days 6 – 10
↔ Another small 8 AM sale was seen yesterday, it is important not only to know that a sale occurred
but to notice the quantity as yesterday’s 132K was a relatively small amount, more is needed
↔ Fair value for March beans is around 1310 – 1320, current levels are not far from that range
↔ Private analysts estimate BRA production at 150 – 155 MMT while CONAB still estimates production
at 160.2 MMT, CONAB continues to not be as aggressive at cutting production as private groups
Wheat – March CHI right back near the range it has established, likely expecting moderate exports
↔ Seeing March CHI continue to trade around 610 – 620 suggests that most in trade are expecting
wheat exports to remain solid but not strong enough to cause another jump higher
↔ Another solid export number on tomorrow’s weekly report would be 400K – 500K
↓ KC continues to have a slight bearish bias but nothing large scale, exports #1 factor for KC now
Cattle – Trade cautious going into hearing first cash bids, cash has not yet turned higher like futures
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.10 select -0.56 packer BE at 175.26, packer cushion $5.30
↓ Futures trade might be cautious going into first cash bids as the last 2 weeks have seen lower showlist
numbers but still have seen lower cash trades anyway, last week’s cash trade was down $1.02
↔ Futures are still close to cash values with Dec only priced about 0.50 under last week’s cash
↔ There was talk of a very small amount of IA cattle trading EVEN with last week's cash price
↓ BB is not actively lower but is still slightly lower which will limit speculators from bouncing futures
over cash, it was one thing to correct being oversold but more news is needed to take futures over cash
↔ The key for additional support is higher cash trade, BB not helping but we will see first bids today