Exports Expected Lack Luster, This Moring

Corn – Analysts are expecting disappointing exports this morning, corn estimated near 500K

↓ Analysts are expecting disappointing exports today with an average estimate of 894K

↓ Day session traders were more optimistic yesterday but overnight is watching out for that low number which would be a significant slowdown from last week’s 2120K

↔Dec has moved back to its “happy medium” level near 410, Dec has traded around there for 3 weeks

↔Since the start of the month the high for Dec has been 416 and the low has been 397, a small range

Beans – Analysts are expecting disappointing exports this morning, beans estimated near 1000K

↓ Most of the corn comments above can be applied to beans as well this morning, analysts looking for exports of 1000K, a significant slowdown given the last few weeks: 2428K, 1659K, 2533K and 1637K

↔Beans continue to see regular 8 AM sales reports but each one has been just about the minimum to make that report, for larger support trade would want to see an 8 AM sale of 500K or more

↔8 AM sales of 500K are not uncommon during Fall, we would think we will eventually see one

↔Also like corn, Nov has moved back to the middle of the road level near 1010 with a high for the month at 1031 ¼ and a low for this month at 995 ½

Wheat – Analysts are expecting moderate exports this morning, wheat estimated at 475K

↔Wheat is the one market that analysts expect moderate to slightly strong sales at 475K

↓ Overseas wheat took an active setback which may have been the leading cause of overnight selling

↔In wheat we would look for overnight trade to still be focused on overseas wheat which makes sense given most overnight traders are Euro traders who are focused on their own crop

↔Day session traders may focus on US issues, with the current #1 factor being exports

Cattle – No cash bids seen yesterday, futures are priced right at last week’s cash, BB hit hard again

↓ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.53 select -2.47 packer BE at 187.68, packer cushion $7.02

↓ BB down hard yesterday, now taking packer profits back to the neutral level of $7, a move that we have feared might happen for some time now

↔With packer profits at $7 it is still possible to see steady to slightly higher cash trades today but if this BB slide continues the odds of a lower cash trade next week are very high

↓ Choice + Select is at 591 and is new 4 month lows, if it falls under 578 it will make new 8 month lows