Corn – Exports continue to look strong near recent lows, still signs of light fund selling
↑ Last week’s strong weekly sales of 1351K and yesterday’s 8 AM sales of 155K are signs that exports
are improving with price under 440, adding more support around that level
↓ Open interest +3K yesterday still suggests light fund selling but slower than seen the last 5 weeks
↑ Thursday is the February crop report, not typically known for causing large influence but early
estimates are calling for carryout down 16 mln bu which may mean some pre buying today/tomorrow
↓ If a bounce is seen then resistance would be expected again similar to last time in the high 440’s
Beans – Open interest +13K still suggests fund selling, support seen at new 3 year lows
↓ An open interest increase of 13K while seeing beans reach new 3 year lows yesterday suggests that
funds are still actively selling beans, they still have more room to sell beans than corn
↑ Like corn, once new 3 year lows were made in beans we saw moderate speculative support to cause
a bounce back, smaller speculators are active at bargain buying but not for causing a sizable bounce
↔ BRA harvest is at 16% complete as of this last weekend
↔ The Chinese new year starts Friday and is through all of next week, this may slow over all news but
does not mean China will slow or stop imports, 8 AM sales less likely but still possible
↔ Early estimates for Thursday’s report calls for a small 4 mln bu carryout increase
Wheat – A 7K increase in open interest suggests funds might have sold wheat yesterday
↓ A 7K increase in open interest means funds may have been sellers, it is not as easy to assume fund
selling in wheat because they have been somewhat calm in this market in recent weeks
↓ The overseas grind lower continues, not to new lows yesterday but down again
Cattle – National showlist +17K, BB slightly negative, futures still $1 over last week’s cash trade
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.40 select +0.30 packer BE at 183.28, packer cushion $5.06
↓ A +17K showlist and seeing packer profits near $5 both suggest a $1 to $2 lower cash trade this week
↓ Futures are still priced assuming $1 over cash so if a $1 lower price is seen this week it still sets up the
potential for a $2 setback in futures which would bring April close to recent chart support of 180.425
↔ Cattle futures have not seen much of a correction so far this year so a small correction would not be
a surprise this week and an April setback near 180 would not look negative on the chart
↔ Funds were buyers of 10K on the last COT report, their buying is helpful but their buying alone is not
enough to cause a bounce, news is needed and the strongest news is still the boxed beef report