Ethanol recovered last week to a solid 1057

Corn – Ethanol expected moderate to strong, may see technical and “what if” support

↑ Ethanol recovered last week to a solid 1057K and may be expected again near that level this week

↑ We may start to see bargain buyers step in and some buying on a “what if the USDA doesn’t raise acreage as much as expected?” type of small support leading to the report

↓ 10 day weather maps are still very solid, some heat but wide coverage of moderate rains

↔ With Dec now making 2 ½ year lows we can expect any slide to slow, taking away gains is one thing but much more selling will be needed to press price under 441 now

Beans – Some crush plants back running quicker than expected, also finding some bargain buying

↑ Just as with corn, at prices this low going into a USDA report we are bound to see some bargainbuyers just in case the USDA doesn’t raise acreage as much as expected

↔ Some crush plants were expected to remain offline for a while in MN due to flooding but one major crusher in Mankato was reported to already be back up and running yesterday

↑ The round number of 1100 in Nov should attract a few more bargain buyers as well

↔ At some point this recent price break should see an uptick in exports, let’s watch closely for that

Wheat – Harvest pressure likely to continue through this week, downside price targets reached

↓ We can still expect harvest pressure through this week as HRW harvest remains active

↔ Russia is just starting on harvest, trade may watch closely how yields look once harvest reaches the area of frost concern from earlier this year

↔ In the next 1 – 2 weeks we are likely to see attention turn away from US harvest and over to RU

Cattle – Trade priced assuming a steady cash trade, conservative trading still being seen in futures

↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.75 Select +0.19 packer BE at 199.60, packer cushion $9.05

↔ Futures have pre priced in a steady cash trade, this means it is equally prepared to move higher or lower based on what we see for starting bids

↔ Futures trade remains on the conservative side, not going out much more than $3 above or below cash even on extreme events

↑ BB continues to grind higher and as our #1 fundamental factor, continues to suggest slow support

↓ We should expect more resistance in August above 185 as that level is new 8 month highs