Ethanol production suggests a light win for old crop corn for ethanol use.

September - July corn for ethanol usage has totaled 4.988 billion bushels. To meet USDA's current 5.450 billion whole-year goal August usage needs to run 462 million bushels, +4.7%. Given the fact this year's production efficiency is lower than last year we estimate actual ethanol production only needs to run +3.4% from last year in these two months. That is our goal for August ethanol production, +3.5%.

The first three weeks of August saw production +0.3%, +4.8% and +6.4% year/year. Today's number of 1.061 million barrels per day for the last week was +4.8%. This four week period averaged +4.0%. We may very lightly beat USDA's current whole-year goal, +5 to +25 million bushels.

The last week of August, the end of the corn old crop marketing year, saw gasoline usage -4.1% year/year. The year as a whole, Sep - Aug, was -0.2%.

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