Ethanol production rebound, after January weather setbacks, is a little light.

Weekly ethanol production, 1.033 million barrels per week from 1/27 - 2/2, was a rebound from the prior two weeks of weather issues. It was +3.3% from last year. But is it enough?

December's strong production rates were positive and we were running ahead of USDA's goal. USDA responded on 1/12 with +50 million bushels to their whole-year view, now 5.375 billion for the September - August marketing year. But weather issues in January now have us a little behind. USDA's whole-year goal would be +3.8% from last year. Year to date production, after the January setback, is +2.8%. To meet USDA's goal the remainder of the year needs to improve to +4.5%. We are likely a little behind USDA's goal. For now, we expect no change from USDA on Thursday.

Gasoline usage has varied a bit in recent weeks. Since September 1 it is +0.9%.

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