Corn – Ethanol expected strong today close to last week’s 1062K, OI increase still suggests fund selling
↑ Ethanol will be expected strong this week, likely just slightly under last week’s 1062K
↑ Overnight bean buying spilled over to light corn support, spillover support from other markets may
end up being one of the better short-term support factors to expect for corn
↓ Open interest was up 25K yesterday, this continues to suggest moderate to active fund selling
↔ The open interest increase could be from other sources but on a size like seen yesterday the most
likely group would be fund selling, we will see what Friday’s COT report shows
↓ Exports have been poor for 2 weeks in a row, USDA numbers from Friday suggests this will continue
Beans – Better support should be expected close to 1200, morning SA maps a fraction dryer
↑ Better general support is expected near 1200, a level not seen since late 2021 where at that time it
acted as active support posting an ultimate low of 1181 ¼
↑ Morning BRA maps were slightly dryer in the 6 to 10 day outlook, only a minor reduction though
↓ Open interest was up 10K yesterday, also suggesting continued fund selling in beans
↔ Some of this new selling which is raising open interest may also be early hedging
↔ There is talk of recent increase in demand, given the lower price now that is the type of talk that is
expected, we will have to wait and see if any of that is confirmed on 8 AM sales or weekly sales
Wheat – An overall choppy trade is in the bigger picture a slow grind lower, similar to overseas
↓ There may see some pre-selling today of tomorrow’s exports which are expected poor
↔ Last week’s sales were 128K, for this market a minimum of 300K is needed to meet expectations
↔ We are seeing US wheat react to some news of purchases of overseas wheat, it is providing
occasional support but as a word of caution overseas purchases do not always mean US purchases
Cattle – BB continuing higher, futures continue a slow grind higher, steady cash bids yesterday
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +3.46 select +3.04 packer BE at 184.62, packer cushion $12.86
↑ The BB move higher continues at an active pace, now taking packer profits near $13
↔ A steady starting cash bid in NE implies a $1 higher cash trade for that area which is exactly the same
level that futures have pre-priced in as of yesterday’s close
↔ All signs continue to suggest that funds are quiet, finding buyers but not as aggressive as funds
↑ A grind lower in corn is causing feeder cattle to have a little bit better support than we are seeing in
the live cattle market, still on the cautious side however as compared to the support seen in September
↑ April fat cattle futures took out recent resistance yesterday, next resistance expected around 181