Corn – Ethanol expected strong today, lower open interest suggests aggressive cash selling continues
↑ Ethanol expected strong again today at 1040K or higher, ethanol remains above USDA expectations
↔ Historically going back to 2007 there have only been 2 years that some type of weather scare was
not seen by July, 2013 posted a high on 4/9 and 2013 was a grind lower all year
↔ Funds already holding a 74% record short position limits downside risk potential from that group
↔ May corn took out report day lows yesterday but July didn’t, in a couple weeks July will take over as
lead contract but for now May is the main chart to watch
↑ There was a story overnight that China may be cancelling 1 million tons of corn mostly from Ukraine,
some trades may feel they will switch purchases to the US, we will watch exports in the coming weeks
Beans – May and July both under report day lows, an OI increase suggests possible fund selling
↓ May and July took out report day lows both making the chart look like a new lean lower
↔ An OI increase suggests that for beans there may have been both cash and fund selling yesterday
↔ While we wait for planting data to start up trade will still be watching exports which have been
choppy to slightly disappointing, most in trade will want to see 400K+ tomorrow to add support
↑ Overnight found some bargain buyers which is to be expected, with May only 49 cents off contract
lows going into the start of the growing season we are bound to find a few bargain buyers at this level
Wheat – Most HRW areas lack rain in the 10 day forecast, worth at least some attention by trade
↔ Most HRW areas are dry in the 10 day forecast, not likely enough to change the GTE rating much
next week but will be watched by trade in case this turns into a 15 – 20 day event
↑ Exports did well last week at 617K, some traders may pre buy wheat today for tomorrow’s exports
Cattle – No new bird flu headlines yesterday, BB still moving lower, trade still choppy/unsure
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice - Select - packer BE at , packer cushion $
↔ There were no new bird flu headlines yesterday but after trade finished there were smaller
headlines involving egg producers
↑ In general light support is expected as long as there are no more cattle related bird flu headlines
↔ BB continues a grind lower, at current levels that is not bearish but if it continues lower then it will
limit the amount of bounce back that can be expected provided we don’t see any more flu headlines
↔ We would expect to see a low starting bid from packers today, possibly $2 to $3 lower, futures are
currently priced $4 under cash as of yesterday’s close in April