Corn – Analysts looking for exports 975K, it’s likely traders are expecting more, ethanol disappointing
↔Analysts are looking for exports around 975K which would be slightly disappointing but it seems clear from corn being back at the high end of the range that traders are expecting 1500K or more
↔Yesterday’s ethanol was disappointing, it’s only 1 poor report so far, not concerning yet
↓ A few showers were added to the 10 day forecast but mostly dry for most areas for a fast harvest
↔Crude is setting back again quickly but we should not correlate corn to crude unless it makes a significant move lower which would be November taking out the last setback low of 65.27
Beans – Analysts looking for exports 1475K, trade expecting much more, Delta forecast unchanged
↔Analysts are looking for a neutral export number today of 1475K but with Nov making new highs for the move it is likely that traders are expecting a minimum of 2000K
↑ The hurricane forecast is mostly unchanged for the Delta as the storm makes landfall tonight, just seeing the storm make landfall may spark a few extra buyers today
↔It was clear on Monday that funds were short covering again but the rest of the week seemed to slow although we do still expect more fund short covering now in beans as compared to corn/wheat
↔Field reports I have heard suggest slightly lower than expected yields, still strong but not the very strong levels that were expected, about the same could be said for our farm on the 3 fields done so far
Wheat – Analysts looking for exports 425K, trade seems to be looking for the same, exports still #1
↑ Analysts are looking for exports to be slightly strong at 425K, it appears that traders agree with this
↔Exports are still the #1 factor for wheat price right now so today’s report has influence all week
↔The forecast remains mostly clear for HRW planting, once planting is 75% attention will turn to rains
Cattle – A major BB setback yesterday, trade still expecting a steady cash trade, BB getting ugly
↓ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -3.72 select -3.59 packer BE at 184.61, packer cushion $1.49
↓ After a small 2 day bounce BB has turned back to looking ugly, new 4 month lows in choice + select at 581 and not far from threatening 8 month lows at 578
↓ Packer gross profits are $1.49, the 2nd lowest all year, the lowest being -$2.51, any cattle that packers buy this week for steady money would now be done at a solid loss
↔Futures are still pre pricing in not only a steady cash trade this week but that cash will remain fairly strong for a couple months ahead, this is clearly not what boxed beef is suggesting