Easing in Heat Ahead

Corn – Heat eases on day 2/3, solid rains follow for most areas, seasonal high is June 16th

↓ Morning maps break the heat for western areas days 2/3 then follows up with solid rains

↓ Some in overnight trade may put attention on the fact that the seasonal high for corn (on average) is June 16th, that seasonal high may attract a few more speculative sellers

↔ Funds were quiet in corn, not adding to shorts but still holding short 212K or 62% of record

↑ The 440 area for July has acted as support in late March, again for half of April and a 3rd time early

this month which means generally improved support will be expected around 440 again

Beans – Less threatening forecast, funds sellers of 16K, support expected around 1150 in July

↓ The weather maps adding resistance to corn is doing the same for beans, weather still #1

↓ Funds started selling once planting passed 75%, exactly as they did in corn, sellers of 16K now short 76K and so far at 44% of record shorts

↔ When the BRA tax story first came out trade added active support on the thoughts this would mean more China buying of US beans, China did make a few purchases but much more was expected

↓ With the BRA tax situation looking scrapped, it will take away thoughts of sudden improved exports

Wheat – Funds resumed selling which opens up downside on the chart if they are building shorts

↓ The #1 factor for downside remains the active HRW harvest where yields are still expected strong

↓ Funds added to the downside being sellers of 13K, now short 45K or 28% of record

↓ There was a big question if funds would go back to building a short position again and it now looks

like they might, if they get back to 80K – 100K shorts, July CHI could reach under 550

Cattle – The 3 Monday reports are all very important today, BB makes a new high for the recent rally

↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice +1.58 Select +4.56 packer BE at 198.02, packer cushion $12.89

↔ The average cash trade report from last week will be important to watch, trades ranged from $0.50 lower to $5 higher so it is very difficult to guess what the average will be

↔ That average cash trade is likely to be higher and lower packer cushion levels by tomorrow

↑ BB has been on a solid rally which suggests more support, to note: The high in the BB rally last year when it made a move to all time highs was on June 16th

↓ Funds were light sellers of 4K cattle but have not been a major influence on cattle in 1 ½ years