Corn – Early analysts estimates for carryout on Friday expected 2.094, down 37 mil bu
↑ Overnight reacting to the early analysts estimates looking for slightly lower carryout on Friday
↔ The recent 2 weeks of pre selling now has corn priced at a level expecting a sizable carryout increase
↔ There is a disagreement with traders (pre selling) and analysts (calling for lower carryout), if the
analysts’ number is what we end up seeing Friday it would suggest March just above 480
↔ We will see which group turns out to be correct Friday, our numbers align with the average analysts
number which could mean moderate to sizable support Friday
↑↓ Analysts are looking for a 37 mil bu decline, traders are pricing in a 100 – 150 mil bu increase
Beans – Early analysts estimates for carryout on Friday expected 0.242, down 3 mil bu
↑ Like corn, analysts are looking for a small carryout decline Friday of 3 mil bu to 0.242
↔ While a 3 mil decline in carryout may not seem like much of a number, traders are pre pricing in a
carryout increase of 30 – 40 mil bu, if analysts are correct it justifies a bounce back to 1300 in March
↔ SA weather maps still show solid rains but we may see most attention turn to Friday’s report for the
rest of this week, traders and analysts have a sizable disagreement on carryout for Friday
↔ There are rumors China may have cancelled some recent purchases, will watch for confirmation
Wheat – Early analysts estimates for carryout on Friday expected 0.659, same as December
↑ Traders have pre sold wheat as well looking for a small carryout increase, analysts are looking for
carryout to remain the same as December
↔ Like corn/beans, the wheat is pre sold for Friday but not nearly on the same scale as other markets
↔ A 1 week setback in weekly exports is not a major event but exports need to pick up again quickly
Cattle – Showlist +20K, BB slow recovery but much more is needed, snow trade may be concluded
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.67 select -0.17 packer BE at 170.88, packer cushion -$1.67
↓ National showlist this week is +20K and makes the 3rd higher showlist week in a row
↔ BB is on a small bounce, at current bounce pace it would take over a week to recover even half of
the recent losses from last week alone
↓ Last week’s average cash trade was likely seen as disappointing at +0.27 at 172.55
↔ Futures are priced $3.50 under last week’s cash which is fitting given the current showlist and BB
data, assuming a tough week this week but not priced so low that it assumes weeks of lower cash trade