December soybean crush just under expectations.

Monthly soybean use for domestic crush was reported at 204.3 million bushels in December. The trade expected 206.1. This was +9.0% from last year's December. Now, we must disclose that last year's December was a low run. Don't expect +9.0% for January through August ahead. Sep - Dec crush of 781 million bushels is +5.3% from last year. Given USDA's view of a +4.0% gain the next eight months only need to run +3.3%.

If crush runs +5.0% for eight months we'll exceed USDA's goal by 25 million bushels. +6.0% from here on out would be a little aggressive. But it would be +40 million. We need to see these numbers hold strength in the months ahead. While rough seas, exports, are dragging our boat around crush is doing the best job it can in being an anchor.