Crop ratings surprise the trade, improvement all around.

Corn ratings stopped the prior four week slide with a 1% increase in today's weekly Crop Progress report. Today's 68% good/excellent rating was over the trade's view of no change at 67%. Corn has slightly improved from a prior years. Last week's rating was the 22nd best out of 38 prior years of ratings. It is now tied for 19th best.

For corn specifically, ratings are starting to pick up in accuracy for yield modeling. This week's rating can explain 48% of final yields. Last week's rating would imply yields are -1.4% from starting trend. This week that narrows in to -0.3% from starting trend. Yield would be 180.5 bpa vs. USDA's 181.0 trend view. Allendale, for the coming July 12 report is currently expecting no change in USDA's view of trend.

Pollination has picked up. It is in the lower portion of the Midwest. That will increase quickly over the next three weeks.

Soybean ratings increased in this week, +1% to now 68% good/excellent. The trade expectation was no change at 67%. Ratings have improved on a historical basis. Last week was tied for #12 out of 38 prior years. This week it has improved to being tied for #9.

Ratings models have little accuracy at this time. For what little influence they have, today's number would imply soybean yields are currently +0.6% from USDA's starting 52.0 bpa yield, 52.3. For the coming July 12 report we assume trend yields.

The start of the long reproductive process has begun. Blooming is 34% complete and pod set is 9% complete.

Spring wheat ratings posted a second week of gains. This week's number was 3% over last week, now 75% good/excellent. That was over the trade expectation of no change, 72%. There has been a clear improvement from a historical basis. Last week was tied for #11 of the prior 30 years of ratings history. This week is now tied for #6 in this history.

USDA is no longer showing condition ratings for winter wheat. Harvest improved from 54% last week to now 63%. This was on the trade expectation. It is over the 52% five year average.

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