Crop Progress shows corn and soybean harvest, and winter wheat planting, ahead of average.

Corn ratings were unchanged over the prior week, 65% good/excellent. The trade expected a drop to 64%. For this week corn is rated as #15 out of 38 years.

For corn, ratings at this time of year show some level of accuracy for yield modeling. This week's rating can explain 59% of final yields. This week's rating would imply +2.1% from starting trend. Yield would be 184.8 bpa vs. USDA's 181.0 starting trend view. USDA in September was at 183.6. Allendale, given dryness in August and September, would hesitate to suggest there is a yield jump ahead like that.

Harvest was estimated at 14% complete. That was under the trade's 17% expectation. The five year average is 11%.

Soybean ratings were unchanged at 64% good/excellent. The trade expectation was for a 1% decline to 63%. This is a stout rating for this time of year, tied for #7 out of 38 prior years.

Ratings models now have good accuracy at this time of year. Today's number would explain 72% of final yields. A simple model would imply yields are currently +3.7% from USDA's starting 52.0 bpa yield, 53.9. USDA's September yield estimate was 53.2.

Harvest was estimated at 13% complete. That was on the trade's 17% expectation. The five year average is 8%.

Winter wheat planting increased from last week's 14% complete pace to 25%. The expectation was 27%. The five year average pace is 24%.

USDA reported spring wheat harvest increased from last week's 92% pace to now 96% complete. This is the last estimate of the year.

‍