Corn – Funds sell to new record shorts, active sellers last week of 26K, strong support expected at 400
↓ Friday’s COT report showed funds did not stop selling at record, selling another 26K and now at a new record short position of 341K
↑ May corn should see even more solid support if it tests 400, the lead contract of corn has not been under $4.00 since November 4th of 2020
↑↓ Last week’s ethanol remained strong but exports slipped to slightly disappointing at 1007K
↓ It continues that until we see real signs of fund short covering we have to assume funds are still selling and the trend will still be lower, also fair to admit that no one knows when fund short covering will begin and anyone making the claim to know is purely guessing
Beans – Fund selling slowed, exports fell to the 4th lowest in 30 years, May nearing top of 7 year range
↓ Fund selling slowed but was still seen last week as they were sellers of 2K, now short 81% of record
↓ The larger story last week was seeing exports slow to a very poor 56K, for that particular week it was the 4th slowest exports in 30 years
↔ Both corn/beans are falling to the top end of the 7 year range both markets were in between 2014 and 2020, for corn that top end is 400, for beans the top end is around 1080
↔ There continues to be talk of a potential pickup in Chinese buying which is a common conversation at lower prices but to see market support we will have to see 8 AM sales or improved weekly sales
Wheat – Funds resumed selling of 13K, overseas still sideways but needs to be watched
↓ Funds resumed selling, sellers of 13K, now short 42% of record
↔ Overseas wheat is sideways but should be watched, if it makes new lows again it will weigh on US
↓ Exports slipped last week back down to a disappointing level of 280K
Cattle – Placements not as low as expected but unlikely to be seen as disappointing, BB still higher
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice +0.82 Select +0.50 packer BE at 186.35, packer cushion $6.44
↔ Placements were at 92.6% which was not as low as the 88.4 that was expected but should be low enough to not have much effect on the market except to see back months slightly weaker
↔ It has become common to see Placements lower but not as low as analysts expect
↑ The key that should continue to supply light support is seeing a slow grind higher in BB continue
↔ The average cash trade report today should show cash last week $2 to $3 higher