Corn – Morning 1 -5 day shows moderate rains, funds cover 41K shorts, 3 resistance levels still holding
↑ Friday’s extended maps suggested a potential clearing this week but the morning maps still have off and on moderate rains over many central growing areas of ND/MN/IA/MO/WI/IL
↑ Friday’s COT report showed funds covered 41K shorts, the most since late February, they still have plenty of short positions to eventually cover still being short 239K or 70% of record
↔A declining open interest would be a sign that funds may be short covering beyond what was seen on Friday’s report and OI was down 39K contracts on Friday alone
↓ The 3 chart resistance levels held all last week and will be tough to take out at 457, 458 ¾ and 460
Beans – Funds cover 19K shorts, rains add support, more upside chart room but less bullish news
↑ Beans are seeing 2 of the same influences as corn for support, weather and fund short covering
↑ For beans funds are slower to cover shorts seeing +19K Friday, still short 149K or 87% record
↔Beans did not see as aggressive of exports last week as corn and beans also have more time to make up a slowed planting pace, two reasons why beans may continue to recover slower than corn
↔First July resistance is 1196 which leaves some open short term upside room on the chart
↓ Bean exports have been poor 14 of the last 17 weeks, at least some improvement is needed there
Wheat – A correction is possible after July CHI was +55 ½ last week, HRW areas saw solid rains
↓ At least some sort of correction is likely after seeing July CHI up 55 ½ cents last week
↓ HRW areas saw solid rains last week which may keep GTE ratings steady or perhaps improve slightly
↑ Funds covered 20K shorts last week, still short 76K or 47% of record
Cattle – Futures ended Friday factoring in an average cash trade +2.50 at 184.60, BB still sideways
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.22 Select -0.94 packer BE at 186.01, packer cushion $4.07
↔Futures buying ended strong factoring in an average cash trade at 184.60, we will see what today’s
ave cash trade report shows so we know if futures are slightly overbought
↔BB has been trending sideways for 2 weeks now, not falling or recovering and BB has been our single best guide for direction in both cash/futures for over 6 months so we don’t want to ignore it now
↑ Funds bought 3K, the smallest buying they did in any Ag market, now long 36K or 23% record
↔Futures and NE cash trades gave the impression of a recovery last week while cash trades in KS/TX along with BB still looked sideways and funds were small buyers