Corn – Funds cover 45K shorts through Tuesday, seemingly quiet again since Thursday
↑ Funds covered 45K shorts through Tuesday, there was a sign of fund short covering Wednesday as
well but since then their activity looks to have slowed again
↑ Ethanol and exports were both strong last week, supplying light support on the fundamental side
↔ The March crop report is on Friday, very little change is expected from the USDA with trade instead
waiting for the much larger Acreage/Stocks report on the 28th
↓ If there was to be a slight bias going into Friday we would have to assume a slight bearish bias given
that both the January and February crop reports were on the bearish side for corn
Beans – Funds were sellers of 24K, now short 161K or 95% of record shorts, exports remain poor
↑ Overnight adds support, possibly on the thought funds will cover bean shorts next?
↓ For now we have to assume funds continue as sellers until we start seeing signs of short covering
↓ Exports remain quite poor which is what the USDA factored in by lowering exports on the January
crop report and keeping them low on the February report
↓ It is unlikely the USDA will need lower exports again on Friday, but a large carryout is expected
↔ Corn has an improvement in exports and fund short covering, beans have neither of those yet
Wheat – Overseas trade slowed last night, funds cover 12K shorts, now short 35% of record
↔ Overseas trade was mostly quiet last night limiting spillover influence to US wheat this morning
↔ May CHI is at 3 year low levels which should be the level to watch most at 553 ½ and 553 last night
↑ Funds covered 12K shorts but don’t hold as significant of a wheat position as they do in corn/beans
Cattle – BB continues a grind higher, futures follow, average cash expected steady to $0.50 higher
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice +1.08 Select +1.56 packer BE at 190.82, packer cushion $8.26
↑ Late Friday there was an aggressive surge of buying which might have been fund related
↑ Fund trade in cattle has been slower than grains but has seen a 6 week streak if light buying
↑ BB continues higher and now has packer profits over $8, still adding regular light support
↔ Choice + Select is now at 601 which is a level some feel BB may stall out where it has in the past but
for now it is still grinding higher and still adding support
↔ Average cash trades are expected to show steady to $0.50 higher last week