Corn – PF Tour yield 181.1, gives trade reason to expect at least USDA’s 183.1 if not higher
↓ The PF Tour yield came in at 181.1 which initially doesn’t sound that big but traders know that tour has a long history of coming in about 2% too low which means trade will now assume around 184.7
↓ Trade was likely already assuming a yield above USDA’s last 183.1, the tour helped to reaffirm that
↓ Funds were sellers of 9K, not that large of a number but that’s 2 weeks in a row of light selling
↔There is trade concern that with Friday being the end of the month the cash selling will pick up speed as many deferred pricing contracts can’t be rolled any further
Beans – PF Tour yield 54.9, surprisingly higher than USDA’s 53.2, more new crop 8 AM sales expected
↓ The PF Tour yield of 54.9 was likely higher than most expected, gives trade reason to raise their thoughts as with corn and add a little more pressure
↓ Funds were sellers of 8K, like corn not a big number but certainly not helping on this grind lower
↔Heat is in the forecast for the next couple days although trade likely to be 95% done trading weather
↑ More 8 AM sales of new crop beans are expected as it looks like China continues to slowly catch up ground from the poor 2024 exports most of the year, again old crop sales would mean more for support
Wheat – Rail worker strike ended by the Canadian gov’t, new lows overseas, funds buy 20K
↓ The rail worker strike was ended by the Canadian gov’t, trade back to focusing attention overseas
↓ Overseas wheat continues an almost daily grind to new lows on the year including last night
↑ The most surprising number from Friday’s COT report was to see funds as buyers of 20K wheat
↔Exports have improved slightly, possibly sparking the fund buying but much more is needed
Cattle – Placements 105.8% higher than the number expected, easing from panic may mean more
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +1.35 select -1.57 packer BE at 196.15, packer cushion $10.31
↓ Placements at 105.8% were above the 103.2% that were expected and may start today with selling
↔Given how much panic trade was recently seen and futures priced $8 under cash from 2 weeks ago it is likely that either panic or easing from panic is still a larger issue than the high Placements from Friday
↔This week’s average cash trade will be an important report to watch for today
↔BB recovered enough last week to start packers with profits over $10 and keep in mind that figure is still based on the cash from 2 weeks ago so the real number is likely $2 to $3 higher