Corn – Above ave temps, only light rains give a solid forecast for harvest, funds cover 44K shorts
↓ All 15 days of the forecast have slightly above average temperatures for just about all growing areas, the 1 – 5 day has light rains before a moderate system starts up in the Midwest days 6 – 8
↓ Harvest will pick up speed in a big way this week, normal harvest pressure likely to go with that
↑ Funds bought 44K, now short 132K or 37% of record, they have more to cover but getting close to flat
↔Thursday’s carryout suggests price should crop around current levels of 410 although there are still likely to be 10 – 20 cent swings on either side
Beans – Same clear 5 day forecast for bean harvest to pick up speed, funds cover 23K shorts
↓ Overnight looking for more harvest pressure now, combines likely moving in many areas this week
↓ Combines likely to be moving over the next 5 days in all areas except northern areas
↑ Recent exports have been strong and China continues to buy offering solid demand support
↑ Funds bought 23K, now short 131K or 70% of record, funds continue to be slower buyers of beans
↔Thursday’s report also suggests price near current levels for Nov beans, just over $10
Wheat – Fast planting expected for HRW wheat, exports still strong, overseas wheat lower
↓ A fast planting pace is expected for HRW wheat this week adding resistance to KC and likely spilling over resistance to CHI/MN wheat as well
↓ Overseas wheat lower, last night a bit tough to tell which market lead the other
↑ Exports strong last week at 475K, that is still #1 influence with HRW planting likely #2
Cattle – Mostly 183 cash trades reported in NE, BB down again and making new 4 month lows
↓ Friday’s PM BB was choice -2.27 select -1.47 packer BE at 190.21, packer cushion $9.26
↔To start the week packer profits at $9 is still considered strong but if today’s average cash trade report shows $2 - $3 higher cash then packers will start the week near a neutral $7
↓ There was every reason to look for a higher cash trade last week but this week BB is making new 4 month lows and looks quite clear that the overall trend is lower (page 2)
↔Funds were quiet in cattle last week and other than an occasional surge of trade they have remained a small influence on cattle for almost 2 years now
↔December is now lead contract and should be the chart used when watching live cattle