Corn planting fourth lowest of 25 years. Soybean planting lightly slips.

Nationwide corn planting advanced from 36% complete to now 49% over the past week. That was on the 49% trade expectation. For a second week in a row planting is behind the five year average.

Planting is the 4th slowest by this date of the past 25 years. It is the 8th slowest of the 39 year of history with this data set.

Planting pace is a determinant of final yields, albeit a small one. A very ugly model would suggest -2% from trend yields. That would put the US at 177.4 bpa vs. USDA's 181.0 trend. Allendale is not officially lowering yields under trend at this time.

Nationwide soybean planting advanced from 25 complete to now 35% over the past week. That was under the trade expectation of 39%. The five year average is 34%. Soybean planting was at its fifth best pace on May 5. It is now tied with its eighth best pace.

Spring wheat planting advanced from 47% complete to now 61%. This was just under the 63% expectation. The five year average, for comparison, is 48%.

Current planting is the 16th best of the 30 year history of this data set.

Winter wheat ratings were unchanged from last week's 50% good/excellent condition. The trade expected 51%. The five year average for this week is 44%.

Ratings at this time are not a great proxy for final yields. Historically this week's ratings only explain 29% of final yield variance. That improves to 41% on June 2.

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