Corn – Ethanol/exports moderate this week, trade feels comfortable with Dec at $4 for Monday
↔Both ethanol and exports were moderate this week, not seeing a significant demand pickup yet
↔Traders have made it clear for a week and a half now that they are comfortable with corn near $4 for Monday’s report, again this is slightly more bearish than analysts are looking for (near $4.20)
↔Still seeing signs of regular fund short covering, that is still being offset with other sellers
↔After Monday’s report price movement may open up a bit more, especially if the report is surprising
Beans – Trade shows comfort being near $10 for Monday, exports improve even further
↔Trade continues a slow grind lower showing a comfort level near $10 in November for Monday
↔Exports improved further to 1311K yesterday, a strong enough level that it could cause better support after the report, right now trade is nearly 100% focused on Monday
↔The last few days have not seen the signs of fund short covering that corn has, given that the bean report Monday is expected slightly more bearish than corn this does make sense
↔There is still nothing significant to report on weather maps, moderate rains and moderate temps
Wheat – Overseas sideways, signs of fund short covering, exports moderate
↔Overseas remained sideways to slightly supported last night, still influencing US wheat markets
↑ There are signs funds are still short covering in wheat like they are doing in corn
↔Exports improved to 386K yesterday, back to a level considered mostly moderate
Cattle – Cash still trading $3 lower, BB grinding lower, steer weights +6 pounds
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.73 Select -0.80 packer BE at 193.72, packer cushion $4.95
↔Cash trades yesterday were still trading $3 lower, no improvement seen
↔BB technically is still looking sideways but one more lower day and it will look negative again
↓ Packer profits back under $5 gives a slight bearish bias, remember that $7 is considered neutral
↓ Steer weights were up 6 pounds on yesterday’s report which was a significant jump and likely more than trade had expected
To clarify on some terms recently used:
Analysts – Those working numbers to suggest what a report may show (Allendale research, RFD, CNBC)
Traders – Those placing orders in the market (hedgers, elevators, funds)