Corn Finds Support, Beans Attention Shift To November

Corn – GTE down 2% to 72%, solid weather maps continue, support expected again near 440

↑ GTE was down 2% at 72% yesterday, still above the 5 year average of 65%

↔ It is early to put too much confidence in GTE ratings but 72% gives trade the feeling of trend yields

↔ Weather maps appear to be a neutral influence right now, there is still heat seen in central and eastern growing areas but the 1 – 5 day has solid rains west and the 6 – 10 day has moderate rains east

↑ Yesterday and last night brought July close to 440 where support has been seen multiple times

↔ December is going to take over as lead contract soon, support there is around 460, resistance 490

Beans – GTE down 2% to 70%, also solid weather, crush strong which offset last month’s poor report

↑ GTE was down 2% to 70%, 5 year average is around 66%, early suggestion of average yields

↔ Like corn, weather maps have neutral influence right now, enough heat to look slightly threatening but also enough rain to not give trade the impression of a major weather problem

↔ Crush was strong yesterday at 183.625 helping to offset last month’s low crush number, together giving the feeling of a crush pace that is about average

↔ November is about to become lead contract and the only chart support left is contract low 1122 ¾

Wheat – HRW harvest at 22%, spring wheat ratings jump to 76%, funds may still be selling

↓ HRW harvest at 22% is ahead of pace but still shows we should expect harvest pressure all week

↓ Spring wheat rating jumped from 72% last week to 76% yesterday

↓ Open interest was +4K yesterday which suggests funds are still selling

Cattle – BB still moving higher, showlist +15K, futures pre pricing in cash +$1 this week

↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.58 Select +1.01 packer BE at 198.53, packer cushion $10.17

↑ BB is still grinding higher to new highs for the current move

↓ This week’s showlist is +15K and that’s after last week’s +25K

↔ Assuming normal basis we can say that futures are pre pricing in cash +$1 this week

↔ The level futures are pre pricing in seems fair, BB continues to move higher which is supportive but it is tough to get too excited on a higher showlist week following a higher showlist last week