Corn – Exports expected strong today, ethanol was moderate yesterday, forecast still just "OK"
↑ Even though recent exports have been poor, analysts are looking for strong exports around 1200K
↔Ethanol moderate yesterday at 1019K, that is an improvement compared to the previous 5 weeks
↔Forecast maps have solid rains 1 – 5 and while rains were added to the 6 – 10 day, it is still more clear than most maps seen this spring, keep in mind traders will switch to a summer mindset next week
↔Funds remain quiet and we are seeing the type of trade we expected from this which is to find solid support on setbacks but not the scale of buying that took Dec near 500 like when funds were active
Beans – Exports expected moderate, rumors that China will soon resume buying US beans
↔Exports expected moderate around 500K today, excitement is over potential exports going forward
↑ Yesterday started to hear rumors of a pickup in China buying US beans, as for now this is a rumor
↔US bean price to China has come back to near the same level as BRA price to China, this may have been what sparked rumors of China buying as the math says China can now choose either source
↓ Nov is back to a level where active resistance is expected which is any level at or above 1220
↔We will need to watch for 8 AM sales to see if they confirm rumors of China buying in coming days
Wheat – Buying slowed since the Ukraine state weather agency downplayed the Russian frost story
↔We have not seen many sellers but the buying both during the day session and overnight slowed once the Ukraine state weather agency called for no affect on wheat from recent cold temperatures
↔Private analysts are lowering their production numbers and now there are rumors Russia may limit exports, so far nothing that can be definitively proven to this point yet still supports wheat in a big way
↔US wheat is priced too high to be a fill in export source to make up for Russia, if there is a production loss then US would be down the list of potential countries to make up for losses Russian exports
Cattle – BB lower yesterday RIGHT as choice + select reached resistance, futures very bullish
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.85 Select -1.26 packer BE at 194.924, packer cushion $7.88
↔BB has only posted 1 lower day but it happened right at key resistance levels, watch this closely
↔Futures are priced $4 over cash, the most aggressive bullish stance taken since last Fall’s $29.85 setback in futures but still nowhere the scale as last fall (where futures reached $10 over cash)
↔Choice + Select reached a high of 616 this week, key resistance is at 617 and the recent small pullback now has that level at 612
↑ Speculative buyers will be seen ahead of tomorrow’s COF report, Placements expected 93.9%