Corn – Light profit taking Friday trade expected, exports expected strong today of 1200K+
↑ Light profit taking can be expected again today as yesterday made new 3 year lows
↑ Ethanol was strong yesterday at 1084K and exports are expected strong today at 1200K+
↔ Open interest IS moving lower but it is doing so on lower moving days, given that a solid amount of that OI decline is likely longs not willing to roll out of March, it is too early to say it is fund short covering
↔ Today’s COT report will catch the attention of many traders not only for corn but for beans, MN wheat and even bond traders which are all markets that funds are aggressively short right now
Beans – Light Friday profit taking expected, exports expected to be poor at 500K or less
↑ Light Friday profit taking expected after yesterday made new 3 year lows
↓ Exports are expected poor for beans which may limit the profit taking bounce
↓ Talk is that China demand for beans is not only a US issue but they have slowed their buying of BRA beans as well since purchasing the 8 cargoes after they returned from their holiday
↔ As a sign of how much lower priced BRA beans are compared to US beans there is also talk that the US east coast bought 140K of BRA beans, amazing to think buying BRA beans for US use is feasible
Wheat – Exports expected moderate near 400K, overseas wheat on a small bounce, fund buying?
↔ Exports are expected moderate around 400K
↑ It is still early but overseas wheat looks to be putting in a small recovery bounce the last 3 days
↑ Wheat is still the only grain market where we might make a better case that we have seen some fund short covering, they covered 11K shorts last week and we may be seeing that again this week
Cattle – BB recovers and is still slowly trending higher, futures also choppy but over all trends higher
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.99 select +1.35 packer BE at 185.93, packer cushion $6.02
↑ BB has been choppy but still seeing an overall slow grind higher which is almost exactly the type of
trade we have seen in futures, this continues to show BB as the best guide for futures trade
↑ Some support is expected as this afternoon’s BB report is expected to show Placements at 88.4%
↓ Dressed steer weights rose 3 lbs when seasonally they are expected to fall, this surprised trade but likely didn’t surprise most cattle feeders as solid warm weather may have made this predictable
↑ Funds have been slowly buying cattle the last 4 weeks in a row and that is expected to be seen on today’s COT report as well