Weekly export sales today cover Fri 5/31 – Thu 6/60 activity.
Including Brazil's shipping advantage export pricing is near parity with the US. What has changed with pricing is Ukraine's significant discount has been narrowed to -$13 per tonne.
Sales of 1,056,111 tonnes were reported. The trade estimate was 700,000 – 1,250,000. This was the third best sale for this specific week in eight years. A much better than expected sales pattern has been in place for eight weeks.
USDA’s 2.150 billion bushel goal for the year would be even with the five year average pace. Our year to date sales are now +2% with the five year average. The remainder of the year normally holds minimal sales. To meet USDA’s goal remaining sales can fall to -47% vs. the five year average. This week was +259% vs. the five year average. The eight week pattern has run +125%. For next week's report we are even with USDA's whole-year goal.
If the remaining sales through August run double the average, +100%, we'll exceed USDA's current goal by 105 million bushels. At even they would be +34 million bushels.