Corn Expects Strong Exports After The Down Trend Taken Out

Corn – Exports expected strong today at 1200K+, ethanol still strong as well, down trend taken out

↑ Ethanol was strong again yesterday at 1046K, exports expected strong today at 1200K+

↑ Support seen overnight took out 2 early chart resistance levels of 439 ¾ and 443

↔ Now that the Acreage report is a just a week away we may see more pre buying of that report

↑ It is difficult to tell if funds are short covering but we have seen them do so 2 of the last 3 weeks so

we would expect it is continuing, also makes sense to limit short positions ahead of weather trading

↔ Some analysts are cutting acreage aggressively but our survey shows corn acreage -1.169 million

Beans – Yesterday’s 8 AM sales of 120K might have been assumed by trade to be China, short covering

↑ Yesterday saw an 8 AM sale of 120K beans to “unknown”, some in trade may be thinking that was a

sale to China and that China is returning as a buyer of US beans after being quiet for months

↔ We would point out that 120K is not large and we won’t know who “unknown” was until next week

↑ 8 AM sales yesterday may have sparked fund short covering who are still aggressively short beans

↑ Just like corn, there is reason to expect more fund short covering in beans ahead of acreage and

especially before trade starts reacting to weather map updates

↔ Exports are expected moderate today around 500K

Wheat – US wheat still following overseas wheat trade almost to the minute, overseas up slightly

↑ Overseas wheat was up slightly last night and US followed, the US wheat has been following overseas

closer than ever with reactions here coming minutes within a move overseas

↓ Exports today are expected slightly poor around 300K

↓ Exports over the last 5 weeks have been gradually slowing

Cattle – BB calm again, starting cash bids steady with last week, cattle weights report out today at 11

↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.22 Select -0.47 packer BE at 195.63, packer cushion $9.78

↔ BB calm again yesterday, not really moving lower but sideways instead of higher the last 2 days

↔ First cash bids in KS are mostly steady with last week at 186

↓ The cattle weights report (most important report of the week) comes out today around 11 AM and is

expected to show even higher weights than last week

↓ It is clear that trade is cautious again with June not yet coming within $1 of last week’s high despite

cash this week appearing steady to $1 higher, most of this caution is likely due to today’s weights report