Corn – Ethanol has been strong for 5 weeks and will be expected strong today again, over 1000K
↑ Ethanol will be expected to continue its streak of strong reports likely over 1000K today
↔ There have been no signs of fund short covering for 2 weeks now
↑ Very slow and light support is still expected the closer we get to the acreage report where corn acres
will be expected lower, some of which being switched to beans and some to other crops
↔ Corn has not seen a technical correction in 3 weeks so we should expect one to be due soon
↔ Upside technical resistance is still not seen until the 38% retracement at 456 ½
Beans – CONAB lowered BRA crop estimates yesterday, now estimates expected from harvest reports
↓ CONAB lowered BRA crop estimates to 146.9 MMT yesterday, going forward any other updates are
now expected from actual harvest reports, trade may be slightly cautious waiting for those
↔ Like corn, beans have not seen a technical correction in 2 weeks so one is likely due soon
↑ Even though acreage is expected to increase for beans, it is still expected this market will find general
support from the fact that total acreage will be lower on the report at the end of the month
↔ Tomorrow’s exports are uncertain with 2 recent very poor weeks followed by 1 solid week, it is
tough to tell what to expect whether last week was a true recovery or a one week bounce
Wheat – Overseas slightly lower last night after a recent 4 day recovery
↓ Overseas wheat was slightly lower last night after recently seeing a 4 day long recovery
↔ The recent three day streak of China cancellations of US wheat is a sign that we need to continue
paying attention to overseas wheat prices as countries look for lower cost alternatives to US wheat
↔ Exports have recently been moderate/slightly poor so slightly poor exports are expected tomorrow
Cattle – A continued rally in BB continues to add support, futures at the top end of the recent range
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.71 Select +0.72 packer BE at 193.74, packer cushion $9.07
↑ BB still moving higher which is still providing solid support to futures as seen yesterday
↔ While futures have moved higher they have still stalled out at the top end of the recent 30 day range
which is a sign that futures are still following BB but are cautious to try and break out above the range
↔ The top area of the range for April is 189.20 and June is 184.825, each contract spent 1 day above
those levels which was 189.95 for April and 185.85 for June
↔ While we have seen support, yesterday did not show signs of being fond related